基于混沌時間序列的大壩變形短期預測
田旦;許才軍;周命端;陳浩
將混沌時間序列預測理論應(yīng)用到大壩變形預測中,根據(jù)非線性大壩變形時間序列,運用相空間重構(gòu)理論,建立了加權(quán)一階局域法、基于最大Lyapunov指數(shù)法大壩預測模型,對混沌的大壩變形數(shù)據(jù)短期預測模型進行了研究,對比分析了各自的特點,并結(jié)合實例完成了對大壩變形的預測。計算分析表明,該模型預測誤差較小,與傳統(tǒng)的自回歸模型預測結(jié)果相比,基于混沌時間序列的預測方法在大壩變形的短期預測中具有更高的精度。
【作者單位】：武漢大學測繪學院;上海港務(wù)工程公司檢修技術(shù)站
【關(guān)鍵詞】：大壩變形預測;混沌時間序列;相空間重構(gòu);加權(quán)一階局域法;Lyapunov指數(shù)
【正文快照】：
0引言混沌時間序列預測是20世紀80年代末發(fā)展起來的一種非線性預測方法[1],傳統(tǒng)的預測方法主要有動力學方法和數(shù)理統(tǒng)計方法,其共同特點是先建立數(shù)據(jù)序列的主觀模型,然后根據(jù)主觀模型進行計算和預測。混沌科學的發(fā)展,使得不必事先建立主觀模型,而直接根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)序列本身所計算出來
The chaotic Time Series-based Short-term Prediction of Dam Deformation
The chaotic time series prediction theory is applied to the dam deformation.According to the nonlinear characteristics of dam deformation time series and the theory of phase space reconstruction,two prediction models of dam deformation are established.The two models are the prediction model of adding-weight one-rank method and the prediction model of Lyapunov exponents.The characteristics of the above models are compared and analyzed as well.The study indicates that the prediction errors are small.Compared with the traditional AR model,the chaotic time series prediction theory has a high accuracy in the dam deformation prediction.
【Keyword】：dam deformation prediction;chaotic time series;phase space reconstruction;adding-weight one-rank local-region method;Lyapunov exponents
